Safety Car Probability Model

Real-time SC/VSC risk assessment • Bayesian inference

Race Conditions

Circuit

Weather

Current Lap: 1

Track Temp: 28°C

Incidents This Race: 0

52%

Historical SC Rate

38%

Historical VSC Rate

very high

Crash Frequency

Yes

Street Circuit

Combined SC/VSC Probability

98.0%

HIGH RISK

Trend: HIGH

🚗 Safety Car95.0%

⚡ Virtual Safety Car70.5%

🚩 Red Flag0.0%

⚠️ High SC probability - Consider extending first stint to benefit from potential free stop

💡 VSC likely - Prepare for reactive pit strategy

🏁 Lap 1 chaos factor - First lap incidents historically 2.5x more likely